Simplicity, Signal, and Success
UK Defence, Joby x Blade, and Starship IFT-10
Welcome to the August edition of the BLOS newsletter!
As we roll into September fall season, it’s back to work and back to school.
A quick note: if you’re at DSEI UK next week in London, drop me a message if you’d like to meet.
UK Defence: Simplicity and Scalability needed
In June 2025, the UK Government published its Strategic Defence Review report. Report talks about spending billions on nuclear weapons programs, autonomous systems, directed energy weapons, munitions, and more. It also intends to increase defence spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, and 3% of GDP by the next parliament.
A couple of weeks ago, British politician and ex-NATO chief George Robertson warned that the defence push will be ‘painful’ for the UK. Given the state of the UK’s sluggish economic growth, decreasing productivity and ongoing domestic issues, he’s right. Where is the funding going to come from?
It is also recognised that the UK MoD procurement processes need to be faster, UK primes need to work better with SMEs, and the country also needs to address the widening skills gap.
In addition to this, there’s another fundamental issue that doesn’t get talked about at roundtables and conferences: we give too much importance to R&D and developing fancy new tech. Yes, funding AI, quantum, and other new tech is needed. But funding simple, scalable systems and technologies that can be rapidly mass produced is more important.
Simple, scalable, mass produced systems provide cost-effectiveness and economies of scale upon which complexity (i.e. new technologies) can be implemented. To take an adversary’s example — since 2022, Russia has managed to lower the production cost of its Shahed drones from $370k to $70k. Russia is now starting to implement AI into these drones using smuggled Nvidia chips.
Simple and scalable first to enable economies of scale, then add the complexity of new technologies. This can also help address the widening skills gap in the country.
Here is some analysis based on a hypothetical exercise I published in Jan 2025:
Joby x Blade: A Signal of Adolescence?
Joby completed its acquisition of Blade Air Mobility’s passenger flight services business. While aircraft manufacturers don’t generally also operate aircraft, this is a nascent market segment. Joby, Archer, and a few others intend to operate their own aircraft as well as sell to selected parties. This will allow them to own the value chain as the market matures.
This isn’t new. In 1929, Boeing Aircraft Co merged with Pratt & Whitney to form United Aircraft and Transport Co. This was to control all facets of the aviation market — from engine and aircraft manufacturing to airline operations.
Interesting move from Joby, and a smart one, given Blade’s already established customer base in regions such as NY and South Europe. Once certified, this will provide Joby with a catalyst for growing its commercial operations, and revenues.
While Joby’s acquisition of Blade isn’t history repeating the same Boeing x Pratt & Whitney merger story word for word, it does rhyme. It is a sign of adolescence as the market matures.
Success of Starship IFT-10 and Megaconstellations
SpaceX successfully completed Starship’s IFT-10 (integrated flight test 10) and deployed mock Starlink satellites. Great news after a string of failures.
Falcon 9’s reusability has been a game changer for the space sector. SpaceX already has a ridiculously larger launch cadence (thanks partially to Starlink) compared to anyone else in the space sector. It is on track to complete 170 launches in 2025. Just last week, Falcon 9 also completed 30th flight using the same booster and completed 400th booster landing on drone ship.
One thing of note: megaconstellation operators like OneWeb of Kuiper aren’t just competing with Starlink, they are also competing with Starship development timelines and Falcon 9 launch cadence. Once Starship is operational, it will be able to carry 5-7x more Starlink satellites than Falcon 9, at a cheaper per unit cost, and able to replenish its constellation for peanuts (relatively speaking).
Starlink is already profitable, while its competitors are either making a loss (e.g. OneWeb as part of Eutelsat) or aren’t fully operational yet (e.g. Amazon Kuiper).
What’s More:
The UK’s NISTA has rated the Tempest/GCAP sixth-generation fighter programme “RED” due to its complexity and challenges. Measures are underway to address them and the project is not considered doomed.
Spain has decided against purchasing U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets and is now choosing between the European-made Eurofighter and the Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
India finalises design for its 5th gen fighter jet — Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), and aiming for prototype rollout by 2027.
South Korea’s Navy Sea GHOST initiative will build drone aircraft carriers by the late 2030s, creating a fleet where manned and unmanned systems operate together using advanced UAVs for defence and attack.
Two relatively new Airbus A321neos leased to IndiGo are being scrapped because their parts, especially engines, are more valuable amid supply chain shortages and aircraft backlogs.
Following a similar U.S. policy, Taiwan will classify small drones as “consumables” to speed up procurement, boost local industry collaboration, and allow rapid deployment in future conflicts.
Pentagon’s Golden Dome will have a 4-layer defence system: a space-based sensing and targeting layer, three land-based layers, and a new large missile field in the Midwest. The system is estimated to cost 175 billion.
Rocket Lab has opened Launch Complex 3 in Virginia to support testing, launches, and recovery of its reusable Neutron rocket, which can carry 13,000kg to space.
From April 2026, UK Space Agency will be absorbed into the Department of Science, Innovation and Technology.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adit is the founder of Elantar, a UK-based boutique commercial and strategy consulting firm specialising in helping companies grow faster in aerospace, defence, and space sectors. Get in touch via LinkedIn.