Focus on Supply Chains and Operations in a Trump 2.0 Era
Plus The Headlines, Money Matters, and Recommended Reading (Week 4 2025: 20 - 26 Jan)
Welcome to today’s Beyond Line of Sight edition!
Trump is a controversial and polarising figure by almost any measure. Between the 2024 U.S. Presidential election results, his inauguration, and today, he has been vocal about many things – more import tariffs, demand for lower interest rates and oil prices, threatening to leave NATO, and much more.
Experts have been deciphering what Trump means and what his term in office could mean for drones,aerospace, and defense.
The U.S. is the largest economy in the world, is the ‘world police’, and a significant amount of business transactions are done in the USD (c. 50%). So even for businesses not in the U.S. or don’t do business with the U.S., what happens in the U.S. still impacts almost everyone directly or indirectly.
Let’s take a brief look at being prepared to act on two important fronts – supply chain and operations. Here’s how the drone industry players need to think about to thrive and grow in a volatile and uncertain Trump 2.0 world.
Re-evaluate, re-think, and (possibly) re-design your supply chains. Given Trump’s comments around increasing tariffs for EU, Mexico, Canada, among other countries, and the U.S. – China trade war, it is wise to re-evaluate supply chains. Knowing potential short and mid-term risks and their impacts is specific to each business. Having these identified along with a plan of action will enable navigating uncertain and volatility easier and acting on new opportunities quicker when they present themselves.
Build flexibility into your operations. This is an extension of the previous point on supply chains. Tariffs, trade wars, interest rate changes, immigration policy changes, forex volatility, and more brought on by Trump’s plans can impact operations, and in the current global political climate, flexible operations can be a competitive advantage. Build flexibility by assessing all parts of your operations to identify risks and scenarios to cater for, and mitigating actions to be put in place. Consider also the cost (and the value) of response when building flexibility. Not every situation necessarily needs a response.
Each business is unique, but here are a few examples:
A drone OEM or a component provider with growth plans into the U.S. public safety market may want to evaluate their supply chain for Chinese-made components and assess their competitiveness in the U.S. market if heavy tariffs are put in place.
A drone manufacturer in the U.S. relying on fuelling their growth using debt in the next 12-18 months may want to also weigh other means of raising capital if debt becomes expensive.
A drone component manufacturer may want to assess and plan to re-negotiate contract terms & conditions (or possibly change suppliers) to hedge against potential forex and oil price volatilities.
Regulations and regulatory changes often get a lot of attention in the drone industry, and rightly so. But as the industry grows, building resilience and flexibility in supply chains and operations is just as important.
Companies need to be constantly evaluating their place in the market, keep their eye on the pulse, and be able to act quickly to capitalise on new opportunities while mitigating new risks resulting for volatility and uncertainty today.
The takeaway:
Focus on de-risking your supply chains and build flexibility in your operations to enable you to act on new opportunities and mitigate risks quickly in a Trump 2.0 era.
The Headlines
Defence and Security
Ukraine’s defenses were tested as Russian forces launched a massive drone attack with 99 UAVs, including Shahed and imitation drones. Most were successfully neutralised.
Ukraine also carried out a large-scale drone strike on Russian oil infrastructure and military sites, bypassing air defenses and hitting key targets, including an oil refinery near Moscow and other drone attacks disrupting airport operations.
Russia has introduced a drone equipped with a 4G trail camera that lands near enemy lines to conduct real-time surveillance of Ukrainian positions.
In Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps unveiled the "Razvan", a new kamikaze drone with a 20-kilometer range, front-facing camera, and real-time visual feedback.
Taiwan is boosting its defenses by acquiring 26 advanced anti-drone systems with AESA radar and jamming capabilities to counter frequency-hopping drones amid rising regional tensions.
India’s ideaForge SWITCH MINI became the first small UAV certified “Fit for Indian Military Use”.
Bakyar announced that in Nov 2024, the Bayraktar TB3 became the world's first armed UAV to successfully take off and land on a short-runway vessel without external arresting gear.
Bluelight
The Redmond Police Department launched a Drone First Responder program using Skydio and BRINC drones, and New York City’s Department of Sanitation is exploring a drone program to monitor illegal dumping.
Commercial
South Korean drone exports surged 260% to $27.54 million last year, driven by U.S. restrictions on Chinese drones.
China delivered its first batch of mass-produced HY100 UAVs, designed for agriculture, forestry, and logistics, with a 5.25-tonne take-off weight and 1,800 km range.
Amazon had paused Prime Air drone deliveries in Texas and Arizona last week. It has revealed this was for software updates and is unrelated to the recent test crashes.
Indonesia hosted its first multi-drone demonstration, highlighting UTM systems for safe urban drone management and advancing its position in Southeast Asia’s drone industry.
Product Launch
ZIYAN Tech unveiled the F15 UAV, a VTOL drone with a 100-minute flight time, 5kg payload capacity, and rapid two-minute assembly for industrial applications.
South Korea’s BEI developed a 410 Wh/kg battery that doubles drone flight times, enabling operations in extreme cold and extending range by 70%.
BRINC launched "BRINC Beyond," offering up to $15,000 in trade-in credits to help public safety agencies transition to specialized drones like the Responder and Lemur2.
Legal
President Trump has directed an investigation into the mysterious drone activity in New Jersey that has raised concerns since November.
Policy and Regulations
The White House has implemented a regulatory freeze, affecting both aviation and drone regulations, delayingthe FAA's proposed rules on BVLOS and other drone operations.
North Dakota's House Bill 1038 proposes replacing Chinese-made drones within two years through a $15 million program, despite independent audits finding no security risks with DJI drones.
Germany approved a proposal allowing the military to shoot down unauthorized drones near critical infrastructure, with Interior Minister Nancy Faeser stressing the need for Bundeswehr intervention in serious threats.
Partnerships
HevenDrones and SMARTSHOOTER have partnered to enhance drone defense by integrating precision shooting systems with advanced UAVs for military and civilian security.
Silvus Technologies and Safeware are expanding access to StreamCaster MANET radios, improving emergency communication for first responders and law enforcement.
Drone America and the UAS Center at San Bernardino International Airport partnered for wildfire prevention, early detection, and rapid emergency response.
SkySafe renewed its partnership with the Farmers Insurance Open, providing drone detection technology to secure airspace during the PGA TOUR event.
Argentech Solutions and S-PLANE are collaborating to enhance drone autonomy and BVLOS operations, expanding their market reach in North America.
T-Mobile Czech Republic and Primoco UAV SE are deploying drones with mobile signal boosters to provide connectivity in remote areas, debuting at the Jizerska 50 ski race.
Money Matters
Contracts
Packet Digital: awarded a U.S. Navy contract to develop high-efficiency lithium-ion battery systems for drones for ship-to-ship and ship-to-shore missions.
Boeing: secured a $980,000 contract from Japan’s Ministry of Defense to test drones for its manned-unmanned teaming program.
Garuda Aerospace: secured contracts with several mining corporations in India for conducting volumetric analysis, terrain mapping, and resource management using drones.
Schiebel: renewed (PDF type) contract with the European Maritime Safety Agency to provide CAMCOPTER S-100 drones for maritime surveillance, emission monitoring, and search and rescue across the EU.
Investment and M&A
Since made public last week, Shield AI is nearing a $200 million funding round at a $5 billion valuation to advance its AI-powered "Hivemind" software for autonomous drones and expand in the defense sector.
Redwire Corporation is acquiring Edge Autonomy for $925 million, strengthening its position in autonomous airborne systems and enhancing its defense and national security capabilities.
Recommended Reading This Week
Trump’s Second Term: Charting a New Path in Asia
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adit Shah is a UK-based business and strategy consultant specialising in aerospace, defence, and space sectors. If you are interested in Adit’s expertise, please get in touch via LinkedIn.